Somebody asked if “Wisconsin can be trusted to return an honest election result [in today’s election]?”
Here was my answer:
It depends on what you mean by “honest election result”.
If you mean that the vote counts match the ballots cast? With the exception of Waukesha, yes, I have no worries. Of course, Waukesha alone likely has more votes than the margin–and even a legitimate vote count there might skew enough in the GOP direction to in effect decide the election.
However, I do not trust the ballots cast to reflect the will of the people. Robocalls telling Walker opponents they don’t need to vote, poll workers illegally stopping college students, poll workers illegally demanding ID, new laws sowing general confusion, outside interests outspending Dems 25:1, Walker lying through his teeth and spinning disinformation with that extraordinary funding–it seems almost guaranteed that the vote will be but a distorted reflection of the actual desires of WI.
Plus, Walker supporters were willing to threaten people just for petitioning, so I have to wonder if anyone feels intimidated against voting for Barrett in smaller towns (where you’re more likely to know each other) that lean heavily GOP?
So, on balance, I will be genuinely surprised–pleased, but surprised–if there are significant gains for the Dems in these elections, despite the fact that I trust the polling which says that, basically, the higher the turnout the more the Dems win by.
And given that, as near as I can tell, Walker’s policies are the inverse of Obama care, disinformation is definitely on Walker’s side. The latter policy, everyone says they hate, but when you actually tell them what’s in it, they love it (with the possible exception of being penalized if they don’t buy health insurance. The former, polls seem to indicate that a bare majority support, but when you actually ask people about the ramifications of those policies, they decry them.